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National Weather Service
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 28 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 30 2026
...Several days of severe weather and heavy rainfall expected over the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valleys, Mid-South, and Gulf Coast...
...Critical fire weather conditions continue across the Southern High Plains...
...Below average temperatures across Central/Northern Plains on Tuesday, while above normal temperatures continue ahead of the cold front...
Severe weather and heavy rainfall ahead of a slow moving front in parts of the Mississippi Valley and Mid-South continue to make weather headlines, with another active day on both fronts expected roughly along a Memphis to Dallas corridor. Much of this area could wake up to thunder as an initial round of cells develop this morning and quickly track eastward and congeal into a complex. Owing to the very moist and unstable airmass available for these storms to tap into, severe hail, damaging wind, and high rainfall rates will be the main threats with this initial activity. However, a second, potentially more potent round of thunderstorms capable of are forecast to develop this afternoon and track across a similar area. This second batch will carry the threat of tornadoes, very large hail, and a greater flash flooding risk as they train and overlap with each other. Tomorrow, the threat of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will slightly shift southward towards the Gulf Coast with the front, although fortunately the overall coverage and intensity of these storms is expected to be lower per the latest Convective and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks, which both highlight a Marginal Risk. To the east, the more progressive segment of the cold front will drive showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Wednesday, which could pose a risk for an isolated tornado and severe wind gust. By Thursday morning, the stalled front in Texas is expected to support unsettled weather over portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest as it interacts with a disturbance in the subtropical jet. The main threat with this activity will be isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding in central Texas as several days of overlapping thunderstorms begin to saturate the soil in the region.
Over the southern High Plains, Critical Fire Weather conditions continues as dry airmass persist over the southwest and southern High Plains. With the lack of moisture recovery, strong low-level winds and dry fuels, parts of New Mexico and Texas will continue to see fire weather concerns into Wednesday. Much of northern Texas and northeastern-eastern New Mexico have issued Red Flag Warnings, with a Fire Weather Watch remaining in effect through Tuesday. Conditions are expected to improve on Wednesday, as the aforementioned precipitation is forecast to develop over the area.
Above normal temperatures will persist ahead of the cold front for much of Texas into parts of Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Southeast for today, while below normal temperatures persist over Northern/Central Plains. By Thursday, the cold front will move eastward bring drier and cooler conditions into much of the eastern U.S. with temperatures dropping to 10-15 degrees below average. Above normal temperatures build over the Pacific Northwest a upper-level ridge moves into the area.
Asherman/Oudit