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National Weather Service
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 15 2026 - 12Z Wed Jun 17 2026
...Increasing threat of significant heavy rainfall from South Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley through the next couple of days...
...Rain exiting New England this morning as much cooler air surges into the eastern two-thirds of the country...
...Heat across the Pacific Northwest will begin to moderate on Tuesday...
A weather pattern favoring cold air intrusions from Canada is bringing a refreshingly cool airmass into much of the eastern two-thirds of the country. The remaining rain and rain showers across New England will mostly exit into the Canadian Maritimes by this afternoon behind a low pressure wave and the primary cold front. Temperatures behind the front will drop into the 40s and 50s from the northern and central Plains to the Great Lakes this morning, spreading into the Northeast by Tuesday morning. High temperatures will only recover to the 70s and lower 80s, which are more than 10 degrees below normal for portions of those areas.
As the cool air mass dominates the weather pattern across much of the central and eastern U.S., the stage is set for a prolonged heavy rainfall event from South Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. This is in response to complex interactions among an upper-level disturbance exiting the Mexican plateau, tropical moisture near the western Gulf and northeastern Mexico, and the cold front becoming nearly stationary near the Gulf Coast. Through the next 3 days, areal rainfall totals of 4-6" with locally higher amounts can be expected along the Texas coastline into Louisiana. In addition, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring the potential for tropical cyclone development near the Texas Gulf Coast for later this week. Enhanced tropical rainfall could begin to affect southern Texas by later on Tuesday, possibly moving further up the Texas coast by Wednesday morning.
Across the northern tier, a couple of quick-moving low pressure systems will deliver some showers and gusty winds through the next couple of days. The first system will move from the northern Plains today to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. The second system is forecast to be the stronger of the two, and will be intensifying over the northern Plains Wednesday morning.
Elsewhere, monsoonal showers and embedded thunderstorms from the Four Corners to the Southern Rockies today should have tapered off by Tuesday. Across the Pacific Northwest, heat is forecast to peak today with record-high temperatures reaching as high as the upper-90s before cooling off on Tuesday. The Desert Southwest and the Central Valley of California will remain hot, with highs in the 110s and 90s-100s, respectively. Florida will see more numerous showers and thunderstorms across the northern part of the state through the next couple of days.
Kong