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National Weather Service
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026
...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms possible with heavy rain across the Southern/Central Plains during the next couple of days...
...A couple of rounds of severe thunderstorms possible with heavy rain across the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday night...
...Unsettled weather today in California and the northern Intermountains will shift focus to the Four Corners and Pacific Northwest Tuesday into early Wednesday...
...Critical fire weather risk over the central to southern High Plains...
A frontal boundary extending across the northern tier states is forecast to undulate through the next couple days. As low pressure waves form along the front, showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of and near the tracks of the waves. A couple of these waves will likely trigger strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rain focusing across the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes region for tonight into Tuesday morning. A lull in the thunderstorm activity is expected during the day on Tuesday before another round of strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rain returns later on Tuesday across the Midwest/upper Midwest and into the southern half of the Great Lakes into early Wednesday morning. The interior Northeast will also see a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The first round is expected today ahead of a warm front followed by a cold front. The next round should bring a higher risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday night ahead of the next low pressure wave.
As the front undulates across the northern tier states, return flow from a strong ridge of high pressure extending from Bermuda will promote rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the Midwest through the next couple of days. The Bermuda High will also bring anomalous warmth into the eastern U.S. High temperatures well into the 80s will begin to challenge daily records in the east-central U.S. by Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday morning, record warm temperatures will be widespread from the east-central U.S. to New England.
The recent round of heavy mountain snow and low-elevation rain across California will begin to taper off today as a low pressure system moves farther inland and weakens. Meanwhile, the northern Intermountain region will get a round of high-elevation snow and lower-elevation rain today as the northern edge of the low pressure system interacts with a front arriving from Canada. Unsettled weather will then shift focus to the Four Corners on Tuesday as the upper low/trough penetrates farther inland. Pacific Northwest will also see the next round of rain and high-elevation snow arriving on Tuesday ahead of the next Pacific system. The precipitation is expected to be heavier along with windy conditions Tuesday night with the passage of a front.
As the warm air expands eastward from the Plains to the eastern U.S. over the next couple of days, a cooling trend will gradually work its way across the western U.S. with the ongoing unsettled weather. Warm temperatures, dry air and some gusty winds will promote a critical risk of fire weather over the central to southern High Plains and nearby southern Rockies over the next couple of days.
Kong